psychojoe said..D3 said..psychojoe said..D3 said..
I think we can all agree that past 3 years have sucked for pretty much every body. And the immediate future is looking pretty rough as well.
OK, in particular, you got a raw deal. In an ideal world it wouldn't have happened.
I don't want to minimise or make light of what has happened to you
But also, in an ideal world, so many lives wouldn't have been ruined and lost directly due to this disease as well as affected indirectly by it.
Well we can all agree with that statement.
A lot of the argument comes down to epidemiology. We blindly followed the miscalculations of that egotistical windbag Dr. Bhatt who was generally out by a factor of 50, while ignoring and belittling the very accurate work of Professor Ioannidis.
And we are still following inaccurate data and wild misrepresentations.
Please do tell where Professor Ioannidis was accurate with his prediction of "mid range estimate 10,000 deaths" in the USA or "Worst case scenario of 40million deaths world wide"?
I agree that his early calls that we did not have enough data to accurately assess the threat were correct.
Where he went wrong was then using that very same insufficient data to try prove how little impact this new virus would have. And then using these same predictions to influence policy against instituting wide spread non-medical interventions until more was known about how the disease would impact the USA and the World.
Which remains accurate. The only way you more than 40 million global deaths in 2020 is if you count people dying 'with' Covid instead of more accurately measuring the rise in all cause mortality.
Unless you believe that Covid magically reduced arteriosclerosis mortality.
So your saying for his worst case scenario to even be close to accurate, the entire world ignored his advice.
He argued that shutting down would cause more harm than good.
But it was by the entire world working to limit the spread of this disease that the death toll was as low as it was.
In the 12months from his prediction, the USA had recorded deaths more in the order of 500,000 than 10,000.
An that's with at least some parts of the country trying to limit the impact.
And here in Australia where we did better with limiting spread, there was less than 1000 deaths.
Here's an interesting exercise for you, using the professor's own prediction of Case Fatality Rate. Back in April 2020, he calculated it was 0.3%. if you apply that to the number of cases we had in 2020 (approx 1% of our population), it predicts about 700 deaths compared to our recorded 900. Not bad, except he predicted only 1% of USA population would be infected without lockdown, missed the mark a bit there.
But say we didn't lock down and wait for effective medications and vaccines and we had 5 million cases (we had 10million+ last year but apparently omicron is more transmissible but about as dangerous as original).
Then we should see something in the order of 15,000 deaths.
But thanks to lockdowns, masks, social distancing, new antivirals and vaccines. That did not happen, it took over 10 million cases to reach that number.